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Friday, 10 July 2009

What can we expect from the CADJPY

Good Morning Dynamic Traders

The weekend has finally arrived, and starts tonight!

Yesterday I asked what reversal formation do we have on the day chart and the answer is a Head ‘n’ Shoulder formation! This reversal formation is formed at the top of the uptrend on the weekly chart where price changed direction at the RN 90.000, this same area is also at a Fib breather level. This supports the theory from Tuesday of price being in a bearish flag.

If you look at the day chart below you will see that price is currently struggling at previous S/R line, which is also at a strong RN. If price can beat this support area then price has a good chance of falling further. There is one problem which may stop price from falling, and that is the MACD. The MACD is currently showing signs of convergence, which normally indicates a possible reversal in price.













It will be very interesting to see what action price brings for the rest of today and also Monday’s price action! Long term traders may have the chance to pick up easy profits!

Hope you all have a great weekend,

Happy Trading

Richard Monnery

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Thursday, 9 July 2009

GBPJPY fights back but for how long?

Good evening ladies and gentlemen

I hope it's been a fruitful day in the market for you all!

So to the GBPJPY. Today's update emphasises the need to draw in your S and R lines as part of your basic technical analysis! Price fell steeply yesterday shelling out just over 550 pips to who ever was prepared to take the ride. My question yesterday was how much further would price drop and on the 4 hour chart below you can see that it barely spiked through a strong S and R level before being held back which in turn caused price to spend most of today fighting back Bullish. In between S and R levels we use Fib Breather levels to tell us how far price could retrace before further moves, in this case South! Price is now sitting at a cluster of a Conservative Fib Breather Level, the S and R Zone and a RN of sorts! As we know as SM, price never moves in a stright line so the question is would this edge behave in our favour? As always all we can do is wait for the market to unveil itself and inturn gratefully and mechanically accept what is ours!


Are the indicators in unison with our analysis? I will leave it to you to do your own analysis!
I will leave you with this thought by the Great Nelson Mandela "It always seems impossible until it's done!"
Till tomorrow
Abundance ia your Birth Right
Zaheer Anwari

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What's that Formation??

Good Morning Dynamic Traders,

Apologies for not posting an update yesterday, but I’m back now so let’s back to following the CADJPY. On Tuesday my update was in regards to the trend and some long term possibilities of what price might be doing.

To help understand a little more I have enrolled the help of the day chart below. You can see that that we had MACD convergence until price hit the RN and then climbed! With this confluence of events we would expect price to climb, as it has done!
On the chart below you can see I marked out the RN numbers that have had a big effect on price. These RN’s along with the VI has helped price to form a reversal formation, can you spot it?














Tomorrow we will go over the reversal formation and how this effects the direction of price, and the things that we should be looking out for next!

Happy Trading

Richard Monnery

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Wednesday, 8 July 2009

Ever seen a GBPJPY waterfall? (Check the 5 min chart!)

Good evening ladies and gentlemen

Half way through the week and I hope it has been a productive one so far. Weather still acting dodge. I would also like to take a moment to say a few words about the King of Pop, Michael Jackson. Apart from being the best entertainer ever, His contribution to humanity was second to none. He was an inspiration to me. Thank you M.J.J!

So to the GBPJPY and let's see how she has behaved today. Over the last two days price had broken through several obstacles which may have prompted certain traders to unleash the ESLT depending on stratergy and TP. If you enetered Short you may find yourself in healthy territory now with a move of well over 350 pips. Thank you very much. Price has currently found S at a previous S level.

Below I have the 4 hour chart. MACD is doing higher lows but RSI has entered into OS territory.



Where is the next S and R level? How much further could price drop? Any Fib Breather levels to be concerned about? Could this be a FBO and see price reverse above the S level which it currently seems to be doing as the Bulls have pushed back the Bears around 50 pips while writing this update?!

I will leave it to you to do your own analysis.
I will leave you with this thought from none other than Mr. Michael Jackson and which very much relates to my 2 mentors "The greatest education in the world is watching the masters at work!"
Till tomorrow
Abundance is your Birth Right
Zaheer Anwari

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Tuesday, 7 July 2009

GBPJPY back under the microscope!

Good evening ladies and gentlemen

I hope you have all had a wonderful start to the trading week despite the inconsistent weather! As much as sunshine plays a part on our emotions, the weather should not affect our approach to trading and take us away from our TP!

So this week I thought I would follow a currency which I haven't done an update on for a while but seems to be displaying some interesting moves as of late. That would be the cross currency of the GBPJPY.

So below I have the daily and we can see that price has made a fight back to a fib breather level since the turn of the year after being in free fall for the best part of a year and a half. We can see a clear divergence on MACD with a 123786 at the RN. With the edge in our favour, price behaved as expected with those C.O.E and has since dropped crossing through the VI on its way!

RSI also behaved according and crossed below the midline. MACD is now below the midline too! Could we see higher lows to indicate further strength south? Could we see price use the VI as resistance for a further drop?



Below is the 4 hour chart which show action in a little more detail. I have marked the S and R lines where price has been going sideways. Since yesterday price has broken through the S line and the VI. Price did come back to retest the S turned R line, failed to break through and has since moved south. What are the other indicators saying? I will leave you to look at them and do your own analysis!

I will leave you with this thought "Most of the structures in our minds was given to us as a result of our social upbringing and based on choices made by other people. In other words, it was instilled in our minds, but did not originate in our minds." Are you bringing any of this "conditioning" to your trading?
Till tomorrow
Abundance is your Birth Right
Zaheer Anwari

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Following a different currency pair

Good Afternoon Dynamic Traders

Hope your all having a good beginning to the week, and a little good news is that this should be the last day of rain...... until Sunday! (according to my iphone!)

I have decided to have a look and follow the CADJPY, which I’m fairly excited about as I’m fairly sure that I haven’t followed these two currencies yet.

Following my standard procedure its time to get familiar with the price action so that we are able dive in a little deeper and found out what makes these currencies tick!
From looking at the weekly chart we can see that price has been in a downtrend, hit a RN and started to climb until it hit another RN. On the weekly chart below I have marked out 2 potential flags.
The purple circle is marking out a bearish flag, which means price could continue to fall.
The blue circle is marking out a bullish flag, and this will only be confirmed if price climbs above the RN where price dropped.













Tomorrow we will dive into the day chart, and see if we can make more sense of what has been happening!

Happy Trading

Richard Monnery

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Monday, 6 July 2009

2 Weeks of the CHF

Good Morning Dynamic Traders

Hope you all had a great weekend and are now ready for another week trading the markets.

Today I am going to conclude the events of the Swissy from last 2 weeks. Over this period the CHF has remained oscillating, which means for a long term trader this chart may not have been on your watch list. For a short term trader the CHF has offered a couple of opportunities to catch profits.

Over the 2 weeks we have had a double top, price using Fib breather levels, the RN has been playing a key role and so have the Support and Resistance lines. We have also experienced very big climbs and large drops in price. These are all the tools along with the VI that the short term traders of you should have been using, as they have popped up very clearly over the last 2 weeks.













If you have managed to catch some profits from the CHF over the last 2 weeks, very well done to you! Don’t worry if you missed out, practice makes perfect, and ensure that your ready for next time!

I will definitely be choosing another cross to follow for the next couple of weeks!

Happy Trading

Richard Monnery

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