How far will the Loonie drop?

Good Morning dynamic traders,

Hope you have been enjoying a good week on the markets, time to chill out now as the weekend starts tonight!!

Like Zaheer I will be staying out of the markets today as it is NFP today, but I will recap what the Loonie got up to yesterday.

In the 4 hour chart below you can see price yesterday was having a breather, and from this morning it has continued its descent. This isn’t out of norm as price while in a trend will often take time for a breather. Yesterday I asked how far will price fall, and I have marked on the chart below where I think price might fall too, but we will have to wait and see! Remember always carryout your own analysis.















Happy Trading and I hope you have a great weekend.

Richard Monnery

GBPJPY - Still waiting?!

Good afternoon ladies and geltlemen

I hope you have all had a wonderful day in the market so far, trading with caution as today and tomorrow are big for fundamentals with NFP out tomorrow. You may know by now that I tend to stay out the market around this time unless I am convinced with a set up.

So down to business. On our watch list for this week we have the GBPJPY. Yesterday we thought we had maybe got the C.O.E to see a move South but the SM would have always been cautious. With the strong RN present, we may have anticipated a retest before a move South. We were right on the retest, and if you were up early enough you may have taken the trade and made a small profit at the 123886. However, through the early hours of play this morning price reversed and shot straight through the RN Resistance level. I did not enter on a short as a another 123886 did not materialise. Many a Day Walker may have entered long as a BOB, SM using the ESLT, but would have been stopped out. This could have been market conditions or this could just be an example of the volatility of news. There was tentative news out on the GBP today. Any other day, I may have taken this trade but today I stayed out and it paid off. Price then did a doji and since then it has come back down almost 200 pips.

On the 4hr chart, price looks like doing an interesting reversal candle stick so could this be the sign we are waiting for?! Either way we are still waiting for the correct setup before we should think of entering. Remember, patience is a virtue.

(1 hr and 4 hr chart were supposed to go up here but technical issues are not allowing me to do so. Apologies to you all! - Please refer to your own trading platform!)

Alright Rich. Yeah Chelsea got robbed but not very dignified at the end. I want Barca to win but Utd are looking good. It will be intersting to watch! What do you reckon?

Spot on with your answer mate and indeed it is a quality film.

I think the answer to your riddle is Jaws?! Again a complete stab in the dark. I can't really think of any other scary water films!

My riddle is which film is this from. "You came in that thing? You're braver than I thought!"

You all have till Monday as tomorrow I won't be trading. Have a grand weekend and we will catch up with the GBPJPY then.

Till Monday

Abundance is your Birth Right

Zaheer Anwari

Looking like a downward choice for the Loonie.

Good Morning Dynamic traders

Hope you are all well and are having fun on the markets. Remember keep trading fun!!

I left you yesterday pondering over the things we should be keeping an eye out for to help let us know which way the Loonie has decided to go. I pretty much gave you some of the answers through my clues, but lucky enough the Loonie has shown us some of the signs that I was referring to.

In the 4 hour chart below you will see that price dropped below the support line and then it started to oscillate. This is why I asked what should we be looking for, one of the things we should have been looking for was a reversal candlestick, which I have marked on the chart below. This candlestick tells us that price hasn’t reversed yet and is still enjoying the downtrend. There are also a couple of other factors present on the chart. You will notice that the reversal candlestick is also at a support area, which is another reason why price failed to reverse.
If price had reversed and started to climb, I personally would be waiting for a BOB above the support line, because (and hopefully you saw it yesterday) we had another reversal candlestick formation, but instead price failed at the support line and gave us the reversal candlestick I mentioned in the paragraph above.













In the hour chart below you can see that we have the reversal candlestick. You will also notice that the MACD was showing us a sell signal. This signal along with both reversal candlesticks from the hour and 4 hour charts strengthen the fact that price hasn’t finished falling yet.
However we still have convergence from the MACD, so how far will price fall??














Happy Trading

Richard Monnery

GBPJPY - Going short or not?

Good evening ladies and gentlemen

I hope you all had a profit filled day in the market and if not then atleast a day of progression and learning!

Today was a day riddled with fundamentals so I hope you all traded with caution. As a reminder, standing aside is also a position!

So our girl for the week is the GBPJPY and lets see how she progressed today. Yesterday we had some interesting events on several time frames. The 123886 did emerge by the end of the day on the daily with yesterday's bar finishing on a doji. I was anticipating maybe a bigger move today but looking back over the smaller time frames at the end of today, the move may happen at sometime in the near future. Price spent most of today oscillating between 147 and 149. Today's bar may again be a doji.

However, as mentioned above the 1hr and 4hr chart look very interesting. On the 1hr, the divergence from yesterday, coupled with a 123786 and the RN and several indecision candles might prove to be the catalyst for the journey short! Additionally, is RSI or stochastics confirming anything? Can we see the same on the 4hr?




As a caution, looking at the weekly and monthly chart what direction would you say the current trend is in? Could this ultimately have a say in what happens? Would we instead see a break of the 150 mark. I will leave it to you to do your own analysis!

Alright Rich. Utd are indeed looking strong. The Double looks like a strong possibility now!

Sorry mate completely forgot about putting up my own riddle yesterday. I racked my brain for ages trying to think of your riddle and that was the best I came out with!! Not such a bad guess after all!! haha

The answer to your riddle is one of my all time favourite films! Back to the Future! Unless it is also in another film??!! What a classic!

I like where you have taken this so I am going to jump on the band wagon. Which film is this from:

You've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do ya, punk?

Till Tomorrow

Abundance is your Birth Right

Zaheer Anwari

What way is the Loonie going?

Good Morning Dynamic Traders

Yesterday we saw price fall down to the support line, which leaves us wondering what will happen now. Yesterday I asked if you would be triggered into a trade soon. If you are thinking of trading this currency what position will you take? Long or short?

In the day below you see that the MACD is showing convergence, this would normally indicate that price is getting ready to reverse. Personally this convergence is not enough to decide what price might do next and it isn’t enough for me to enter a trade. What does the 4 hour chart show?














Below in the 4 hour chart you will see the same convergence that we saw from the day chart, this also appears on the hour chart as well. We now have a confluence of the same event, but this does strengthen the possibility that price could reverse it’s now a case of when it might happen.














I was all set to write about what things we should be looking for to help us with working out when price might reverse if it does, or if price goes the other way what should we look for then!! Instead I have decided to wait and see if the Loonie shows us today, if it decides which direction it wants to go in.
To give you a clue, look out for your candlesticks, chart patterns and what are your studies saying i.e. RSI, MACD, Stochastics and any other studies you like to use. Tomorrow I will go through what things we should be looking at.

Happy Trading

Richard Monnery

GBPJPY - Long or Short?

Good evening ladies and gentlemen

I hope you all had a wonderful day weekend and recharged for a great week in the market. The long weekend is a great opportunity to spend time with your loved ones but also to reflect on yourself. I hope you found time to do a bit of both.

I would like to apologise for informing you that NFP was out last Friday when infact it is out this Friday.

This week I am going to concentrate on a currency that features strongly on my watch list which is the GBPJPY. Below is the daily chart and we can see price had been shorting since July 08 up to January 09. Currently price is doing a retracement coupled with a divergence on MACD. Today's bar could be a possible doji with also a potential 123886 on the horizon. Look at the figure? However, the VI is not far off which is also sitting close to a RN and a conservative fib breather level. Could this be of any significance for you Swing Traders?





Is the divergence on several time frames? Could this be of any significance? I will leave it to you to analyse! It will intersting to see what happens over the next few days!

Alright Rich. I hope you had a wonderful weekend sir. Utd are looking strong. 2 slip ups in 4 games looks unlikely! We are cursing all those home draws!!

The answer to my riddle is "Ask, Believe, Receive!"

The answer to you riddle is a complete stab in the dark and I am going to say "Never ever ever ever give up!"

Till Tomorrow

Abundance is your Birth Right

Zaheer Anwari

Round Up & New Currency

Good Morning Dynamic Traders

Hope you all had a great bank holiday weekend! I had a brilliant time in Great Yarmouth with my girlfriend, and now I’m looking forward to making money on the markets this week.

I would like to start by apologising for not posting an update last Friday! I was a little late getting to work due to traffic and because of a busy day I struggled to find time to update the EUR. So today I will round up following the EUR and we will begin to follow and learn from another currency.

My last update on Thursday last week, I expressed how I was surprise that the EUR managed to break out of the trend line and I thought that it might stay within trend line a little longer so that we might of had the chance for trading a short position. Since price broke above the trend line price has been using the trend line as support rather than resistance. Price has also been using a S/R line for support which happens to be at a RN, just above the trend line.
It will definitely be interesting to see what happens to price as there is a lot of support below where price is currently. Also see Bijal Shah’s awesome update from yesterday for more EUR fun!!














I have decided to follow the Loonie this week. A currency I haven’t spoken about in while and quite keen to catch up with.
In the day chart below I have marked 2 S/R lines which have helped to keep price from falling. You will also see that price broke through the top support line, and depending on your trading style might possibly trigger you a trade. We are now left wondering what will price do now?
Tomorrow we will break down the Loonie some more!














Happy Trading

Richard Monnery