Kiwi bounce?

Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen

I hope you are all having a wonderful yet maybe cautious day in the market. With NFP out tomorrow I tend to trade with extreme caution the day before as a Day Walker. The anticipated news could cause irrattic moves causing losses that could have been avoided with a little patience!

So lets see how the Kiwi has been performing since yeesterday. I have drawn in a trend line support which was breached once back in February but since then has held strong! The trend line is sitting at a cluster with a fib breather level for the conservative swing trader which since yesterday has caused bullish movement. MACD has been doing lower lows and RSI has crossed over the mid line. Could all this be indicating another test of the RN? What other factor sitting near the RN be atrracting price? Only through your own analysis can this be determined!

Alright Rich. They say that the best way of learning, apart from having a fantastic teacher, is by making mistakes. I have been guilty of not trusting my analysis on several occasions. And I am sure its a mistake we won't be making again! It just goes to show that a mechanical approach is the one and only way to be a success of the art called trading.

As for Liverpool, the title is the only chance of silverware this season but we need Man Utd to slip up twice. It's a tall order but anything is possible!

The answer to your riddle is "There are no mistakes or failures, only lessons!" Great quote and very relevant as you said!!

My riddle for today is what three words do we have written up on our wall?

A_ _

B_ _ _ _ _ _

R_ _ _ _ _ _

My next update will be on Tuesday as NFP tomorrow and a bank holiday for us in The UK on Monday. I wish you all a wonderful (Long) weekend. I am spending it with my 3 month old nephew who has just started to blow raspberries! Just makes me realise the meaning and importance of life and emphasises why I am doing what I am doing!

Till then

Abundance is your Birth Right

Zaheer Anwari

EUR, You Surprised Me!!

Good Morning Dynamic Traders

I have to be honest in saying that I am fairly surprised that the EUR smashed through the trend line. Let’s have a look and see what happened!

Yesterday I showed you on the 4hr chart price dropped to a Fib breather level. In the hour chart below I have marked out the same Fib breather level, price used this breather to relax before it tackled the trend line. The candle stick that broke through the trend line closed just above the trend line and then price was using the trend as a support line instead of a resistance line.
A big factor that helped price to break the trend line was the RN. After price broke through the trend line it did start to drop, but the support line at this RN helped to catch price from falling back below the trend line.














I was surprised that price beat the trend line and didn’t fall back down and continue the downtrend, because price has tested the trend line 4 times which demonstrates the trend line is fairly strong. We also have MACD Divergence on the hour chart making us away of a reversal, but the reversal happened above the trend line and price only dropped to the RN just above the trend line.

The answer to my question yesterday is now slightly irrelevant, but for future use on other charts I will still give you the answer! The answer really depends on how aggressive you are and depends if you have the free time to manage the trade as you need to be ready to close the position in case price was to drop after hitting the trend line.
I personally wouldn’t take the long position, because I expecting price to reversal at the trend line and if you look previously on the 4hr chart price hasn’t always hit the trend line before reversing.
However a long would have meant serious profits as price did beat the trend line.

I look forward to tomorrow to see what price does today.

Till Tomorrow, Happy Trading

Richard Monnery

Day 2 on the EUR

Good Morning Dynamic Traders,

It’s a glorious start today, fingers crossed the weather keeps it that way!

Yesterday we saw what the EUR has been up to recently, it’s now time focus on where price is now!
In the 4 hour chart below you can see that price is currently heading upwards towards the trend line that I have drawn in. You will also notice that price had a breather during it’s currently climb, this breather was caused to due to price reaching a S/R area, and a fib breather level.

We could assume that price will climb back towards the trend line, tag it, and then drop back down. If price does hit the trend line, we then have an opportunity to take a trade.
I was intending to explain further my findings and thoughts, but instead I have decided to leave you with a question.
If we are expecting price to hit the trend line, should we be take a long position now??

Happy Trading

Richard Monnery

A fruitful KIWI

Good evening ladies and gentlemen

I hope you all had a wonderful day in the market and managed to get what you deserve the SM way!?

Yesterday, I left you to figure out where I had entered the trade and made over 80 pips on the Loonie. Below is the 5 min chart! See if you were correct!



So today I thought I would concentrate on a currency that doesn't feature too strongly on my watch list, but is never forgotten about just in case days like today arise. That currency is the Kiwi or the NZD! The reason why she doesn't feature as strongly is that better set ups seem to arise on her twin currency, the AUD. That is according to my TP! Of course all our TPs are personal and different! For those that are not aware, the AUD and NZD are known as twin currencies as their movements tend to mimic each other.

SO below we have the daily chart. We can see that price has been shorting since February 2008. There was a retracement in November 2008 to a RN (0.600) before a further move down to another RN (0.500) before another retracement back to the previous RN (0.600).

Recent movement includes a divergence on MACD, a strong R cluster at the VI and the RN, significant candlesticks, 2 retracements to a fib breather level and a very relevant chart pattern depending on your trading style! Swing traders with a conservative approach would have locked in a very healthy profit.

Currently MACD is below the mid line and doing lower lows. RSI has just crossed the midline. What is stochastics saying? How will this all affect price? Only by doing your own analysis and sticking, with out the slightest deviation, to your TP can entries be determined.



Today I had a healthy profit on the NZD going against the major trend. A beautiful set up appeared on the 5 min chart with similar confluences to the CAD above. But did I buy or sell? See if you can find my entry point and how many pips did I lock in?

Alright Rich. I have no doubt you will be back! You guys were a top flight team once! You will be back!

The answer to your riddle is "The best thing about the future is that it comes one day at a time!" Spot on with your answer sir! Did you trust your analysis today mate?

My riddle for today is "Know the truth and the ___ shall set you ____!"

Till tomorrow

Abundance is your Birth Right

Zaheer Anwari

EUR this week

Good Morning Dynamic Traders

I have decided to leave the CHF, but I will be keeping the chart on my watch list and will still trade with the CHF if and when the opportunities arise.

I have decided to follow the EUR this week, so let’s have a look at recent events and then pick the EUR apart a bit throughout the week.

I’m going to start off by looking at the weekly chart which can be found below! Price performed a huge drop and then it climbed to a breather level. Price then dropped again and shortly afterwards it climbed yet again and came to another Fib breather level. Price is currently in a downtrend, but for how long?

In the daily chart below you can see the same Fib breather levels that we saw on the weekly chart. I have also marked on the chart a trend line, which price seems to be using as a guideline. Price is clearly in a downtrend on the daily chart, but how far will it drop.

Over the next couple of days I will go through the behaviour of the EUR and where we should have been standing to collect profits.

Happy Trading

Richard Monnery

Loonie Round Up

Good evening ladies and gentlemen

I hope you all had a wonderful weekend. Here in London we were spoilt with lovely weather on BOTH days!! What a rarity! Not as rare as a dodgy penalty at Old Trafford though! Well done ref!! I hope you are all recharged and ready for another exciting week in the market.

So I just wana sum up what the Loonie has been doing on Friday and today! Price used the previous resistance to bounce back down over 350 pips on Thursday and Friday. Today's bar at the moment is a spinning top. There was bullish movement through the night before fighting back through the day at the opening whistle this morning.

As we already spotted last week there is a convergence on MACD and at the moment nicely poised at a 123786. However, with the RN in close proximity this is an entry that may need further thought for you swing traders. What are the other indicators .... well... indicating? Where is the VI?

I have also marked in possible S and R trend lines if price continues in the way it is! Could price be heading into a possible squeeze?




Normally I have a smaller time frame up to analyise in more detail the state of play for the day. However, today I am going to see if you can figure out how I made over 80pips from the opening whistle before being stopped out a few minutes ago (at the time of writing this). I have just checked and price has seriously rallied back to where we started this morning. What confluences did I look for? Regular readers should find this very easy!! I will confirm tomorrow!!

Alright Rich! Hope you had a good weekend! Sorry to hear about Southampton dude! All I get to say is "Trust your _____!!" But as you said, the positives is that your ____ was spot on!!!!

You riddle is easy as we have it up on our office wall!! It is "Go confidently in the direction of your dreams" and was said by Thoreau!

My riddle for today is "Keep your ____ closed, but your ___ and ____ open!"

Till tomorrow

Abundance is your Birth Right

Zaheer Anwari

Lesson Well Learnt!!

Good Morning Dynamic Traders,

Hope you all had a good weekend and are well rested for another week of trading!!

Over the last 2 weeks I have been following the CHF! I left you with a question on Thursday which was “What is it that I (we) have been waiting for?” The answer was a point of entry and to be more specific, an entry point for a shorting position!!

I hope my updates have been clear and I am now going to conclude my 2 weeks of the CHF, but more importantly I am going to share with you a lesson I learnt last week!!

Over the last 2 weeks I have been updating the progress on price and I have been banging on about price playing within the channel. This was an important part of my analysis, because the 2 trend lines have been controlling price to stay within that range. These trend lines have also proven themselves as price has tested the bottom trend line that forms the bottom channel 4 times now, and price has tested the top trend line that forms the top line of the channel 3 times. This is a clear indication of how strong these S/R lines are!













On Thursday we got our entry point (although this does depend on how aggressive you are) and I was triggered into a shorting trade. My position started very well, but I began to sweat a bit because price started to turn around got a little stronger. Due to the fact that I was travelling home and had to turn off my laptop I closed my position with a 10pip loss, only to discover upon arriving home and turning my laptop on that price had continued to drop! This was incredibly annoying because price had fallen all the way to the bottom trend line as my analysis said it would and due to the fact that I was in London I decided to stay out of market on Friday.

My frustration isn’t because I made a small loss! It comes from missing out on potential profits, especially when I was in the trade originally. However I can take comfort in the fact that my analysis was spot on and I can learn from the mistake I made and hopefully you can too!!

Keep an eye on this currency as it is still showing signs of offer profits. Remember always carry out your analysis!

Happy Trading

Richard Monnery