Thursday, 29 April 2010
Tuesday, 27 April 2010
Back to the EUR
I thought we would go back and have a look at the EURUSD because it looks like it might be breaking out of its consolidation period. In the day chart below you can see that I have drawn in the support line which price has broken today. This is excellent news because it means that a short position is on the horizon. You will notice from the chart that price has been consolidating for about 2 months. Generally when price consolidates the next move in price is fairly big, so hopefully the next trend will bring us money making opportunities.
Although price seems to be breaking below the support line, it doesn’t necessarily mean that we enter a short position immediately after the BOB. If your aggressive then this might be something that you would like to do. The problem with being aggressive is the potential of a FBO. You can clearly see that price has struggled with this support area, so jumping in with both feet may not be a wise option.
Personally I will be waiting for the 2nd breakout, this way I will have more confident that the range has been broken.
What are your thoughts?
Guys I hope you have an awesome weekend and fingers crossed that the good weather continues for the weekend, which would be great because my friend is celebrating his birthday with a BBQ.
That is if Zaheer hasn’t jinxed it with his update.
Monday, 26 April 2010
I hope it was a great weekend. Having said that, let's get down to another week of Smart Money profit taking. It's Monday!!! Happy Days!!!
So the currency keeping us company for the next two weeks is the Loonie. or USDCAD as you may better know it. I have got a position on this waiting to be triggered. Below I have the daily chart. Trading Room Members will know to already have this on their watch list. Having said that this is probably not a chart that would appeal to every trader. Since breaking the VI, price has been heading downwards but not in a way that is easy on the eye. There have been several deep pull backs along its descent. Recent action has found price consolidating around The Figure which should be expected. Price broke through twice but was pushed back each time by the S/R Line. Third time price broke through again which got my attention even though price has retraced slightly. I am anticipating price to us the R Line to gain momentum south. I have taken a position around the 0.9900 with a strategically placed stop. Again Trading Room members will know how this is worked out using Risk Management. Both Stochastics and the VI are meeting my requirements but does MACD say the same? I will leave you to have a look!
As always please do your own analysis.
A simple quote for this week after I dished out some advice to a rather negative, unconfident yet highly talented individual "I can't = I must!"
Total Abundance is our Birth Right.
Thursday, 22 April 2010
CADCHF Marching On!
Wednesday, 21 April 2010
Patience is a Virtue
Mid way through the week now, and the good news is that some our currencies look like they coming back into play.
As awesome this news is, this doesn’t necessarily mean that we jump straight in with both feet into the first currency that breaks out of consolidation. Obviously this does depend on how aggressive you are with your trading. Please keep in mind and a watchful eye out for FBO’s, these are more likely to appear with markets that are consolidating, rather than trending markets.
A trade that I was really tempted to take last night was the EURSEK. In the day chart below you will see that price, on its third attempt has broken below the support line. As keen as I am to jump in on a short position, I have decided to wait to make sure that this isn’t a FBO and enter a trade on the second breakout as it has taken price 3 attempts to break below the support line.
The day chart above you will see that price has kept within a small range, so the potential for this to be a FBO and price to climb back into the range is fairly high. I’m basically looking for confirmation that price has broken out of the range and has started a new trend.
What’s your plan of action going to be?
Hope you enjoy the rest of the week,
Tuesday, 20 April 2010
The amazing weather has continued through the week so far here in London so I hope you are getting some of this sunshine where ever you maybe.
So as we should all know by now, the markets have been in consolidation over the past few days but today's action should spark some serious interest back into us Smart Money traders looking for a BOB to jump in on some easy and mechanical profit taking.
Below is the daily chart of the CADCHF, which we have been following since last week. We can see that up until yesterday price had been steadily pulling back until it hit a S Level. Today's action has so far seen a serious fightback in the direction of the trend by using the S Level to catapult around 250 pips. Those who did not "focus on the management" and instead chose to look at their disappearing profits will undoubtedly be kicking themselves today if positions were closed off or stops moved tighter. This should once again drive home the point of having a solid TP and a mechanical approach. Emotions will only make you try and second guess what the market is going to do. However, with the trend in our favour we also have the odds stacked in our favour as shown with today's action. So what does the mean for the rest of the week? Well all we can do is wait and see! We may be rewarded with a BOB above the pivot and further strengths in the direction of our friend or we could just see further consolidation. Today's movement doesn't guarantee us anything.
Generally a big BOB signifies strength in that direction but we could easily be taken into a false sense of security with the break out being a fake out. Look at recent action on the AUDNZD. I was stopped out on this yesterday for a loss after being spiked in on a huge BOB only for it end up being a fake out and reversing. Annoying as it is, that is the nature of trading. My other trades will make up for this loss.
As always do your own analysis.
Today's quote is "This is life's ultimate test - to see without looking, to hear without listening, to know without going, to be without becoming!"
Total Abundance is our Birth Right
Monday, 19 April 2010
Hope you had a great weekend and made the most of the beautiful weather.
Like many of you, I am waiting for price on many currency pairings to finish their pulls backs and to give me an entry. Just like Zaheer is waiting on the CADCHF.
This means that I don’t really have too much to report on my personal trades. However I thought I would carry out an update on the NZDJPY. Last Thursday I spoke about the USDJPY and this cross is slightly similar.
From the day chart below you will see that price has broken above the VI and is currently heading back down towards it. There is an argument that says we could maybe enter a long position and enter on the pull back with the tag of the VI. This is a rather aggressive approach, however this may not be the best idea, why do think I’m saying this?
If you zoom out on your own esignal you will find your answer......Price has been consolidating for quite a long time now, which means that it may be more beneficial to wait for a breakout to enter a long position or short for that matter. Entering a position for the long term wouldn’t be advisable because price isn’t sure right now what it is doing.
I hope you had a great and profitable week.
Thursday, 15 April 2010
CADCHF Fighting Back!?
When I heard about the volcano in Iceland, I thought wouldn't it be nice to have an explosion of massive funds in my account. In reality, this happens to very few on a short term basis unless of course you already have a large amount to play with. Trading the Smart Money way with the right strategies and psychology will bring you outstanding rewards in the long run. Your patience indeed will be rewarded.
My entry into the CADCHF has still not been triggered. Below is the daily and we can see that price has been fighting back since the market pull back but is still 200 odd pips from my entry point. So What can we expect next? Can we expect price to continue it's fight back and break through the pivot? I have stacked the odds in my favour and am now waiting to see if the market will do just that. Yesterday's bar was a reversal candlestick which looks favourable and we always have the trend. We could see a 123886 or a similar chart pattern and see price reverse with a divergence on MACD (is there one?!). This could happen before or even after spiking me in. However, this is allowing emotions to get in the way and me second guessing what could happen next. I trust my analysis, have put in my entry into my trading account and am now waiting for the market to work its magic.
If you recall, with the market pull back I was around 50% down across all my trades. However, with the fight back over the last two days and more importantly focusing on my "management", I have now recouped almost of all of that back with one trade even hitting my first target and hence me now being risk free.
I will leave you to do your own analysis.
Today's quote is "Follow your dreams; they're yours for a reason, not the least of which is to make them come true."
Follow John and Clayton on http://www.fxcps.co.uk/
and Sonia and Bijal on http://www.fxcps.com/
and my wingman Richard here on http://www.fxcps.eu/ on the USDJPY.
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Total Abundance is our Birth Right.
Wednesday, 14 April 2010
A sneaky update!
Thought I would sneak in an update before the day is out by looking at the Yen Dollar. I decided to write this update because I was looking at the Yen Dollar and thought that we might have had a long position soon available with price breaking above the VI and breaking out of the range.
You can see from the day chart below that price has broken above the VI and managed to climb a nice distance from the VI. Recently price has performed what could be a potential pull back in an uptrend.
This might look promising for a long position however if you zoom out on the chart you will see that price has been in a down trend for some time now.
Remember the saying – the trend is your friend until it goes round the bend.
This means that a long position may not be as close as I first thought, by looking at the bigger picture I have decided to wait to until price has moved more. My reason for this is because I need more confirmation that price has turned and has decided to climb.
How about you?
Tuesday, 13 April 2010
Good Point Zaheer and John
I would like to start this morning by echoing what John Maher said on his update on Sunday, a very big thank you for all your kind words and positive feedback on our blogs.
Congratulations to Ash and Bijal, who I’m sure, will make great parents.
John and Zaheer have made similar points on their last updates in regards to the market performing pull backs. As frustrating it may be to watch your profits drop, they are both right in saying stick to your rules and Trading Plan. This is the reason why you would have developed the rules and TP. Something that I would like to add on to what they have said already which is – “Don’t chase a Trade”. In times like this where you have either been stopped out or still in trades with smaller profits than the week before, there is a temptation to try and win those profits back. The problem with this is that your emotions are leading the decision making and potentially you could lose more money.
A chart that I currently have my eye on and is waiting patiently on my watch list is the EURCAD. From the day chart below you can see that price has performed a pull back. As frustrating this is if your in a trade, remember that the trend is in our favour.
I’m waiting for a break below the pivot low that I have marked on the chart, before I start to work out my short entry. You will notice that a break below the this support line is also a good distance away from the RN.
What are you plans?
Remember – Don’t chase a trade?